THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Quantum Threat Imminent – NIST PQC Transition Frameworks Now Critical Executive Summary: Quantum computing advances threaten to dismantle RSA and ECC-based security infrastructures by 2030. NIST-standardized post-quantum algorithms—ML-KEM, ML-DSA, FALCON, and SPHINCS+—offer quantum-resistant alternatives, yet introduce challenges in key size and system compatibility. A unified migration strategy integrating hybrid cryptography, certificate ecosystem reforms, and organizational readiness is essential. This briefing synthesizes current research and proposes actionable pathways for secure, scalable transition to PQC before quantum decryption becomes operational. [Citation: Semantic Scholar, 2026] Primary Indicators: - Shor’s algorithm can break RSA and ECC - NIST has standardized ML-KEM, ML-DSA, FALCON, and SPHINCS+ - PQC algorithms exhibit larger key/signature sizes - hybrid cryptographic deployments are emerging as best practice - migration requires updates to protocols, PKI, and certificate authorities - organizational readiness remains a critical gap Recommended Actions: - Initiate inventory of cryptographic assets vulnerable to quantum attacks - pilot hybrid encryption using ML-KEM with existing TLS implementations - develop phased migration roadmaps aligned with NIST SP 1800-38 guidelines - engage CA providers on post-quantum certificate issuance - conduct workforce training on PQC integration and risk management Risk Assessment: The window to preemptively secure critical infrastructure against quantum-enabled decryption is closing rapidly. Entities relying on classical public-key cryptography beyond 2028 face existential compromise, with state-level adversaries likely already harvesting encrypted data for future decryption. While NIST-standardized PQC offers a viable shield, delayed adoption or incomplete ecosystem adaptation—particularly in certificate authorities and legacy systems—will create persistent vulnerabilities. The convergence of advancing quantum hardware and slow institutional response constitutes a Tier 1 strategic risk, requiring immediate executive intervention and resource allocation. Authority in this domain belongs to those who act before the breaking point is visible to all. —Ada H. Pemberley Dispatch from The Prepared E0