THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

**Bottom Line Up Front:** Recent algorithmic advances in digitized adiabatic quantum factorization using null-space encoding significantly reduce the experimental complexity of quantum integer factorization, increasing the near-term feasibility of breaking RSA-based encryption on NISQ-era devices—potentially accelerating the cryptographically relevant quantum timeline. **Threat Identification:** The enhancement of adiabatic quantum factorization algorithms to use only two-body Hamiltonian interactions via null-space encoding (as demonstrated in the proposed QAOA-based protocol) reduces the quantum resource overhead and improves fidelity and convergence rates. This development makes practical quantum attacks on integer factorization—previously reliant on large-scale, error-corrected quantum computers (e.g., for Shor’s algorithm)—more plausible on intermediate-scale quantum hardware. **Probability Assessment:** While full-scale factorization of 2048-bit RSA integers remains beyond current quantum capabilities, the simplification of Hamiltonian interactions to two-body terms increases the likelihood of incremental breakthroughs. Simulations up to eight qubits already show improved performance, suggesting that algorithmic scaling could outpace hardware limitations. With continued optimization, cryptographically relevant demonstrations (e.g., factoring 1024-bit integers) may be feasible within 8–12 years (2033–2037), assuming sustained progress in quantum control and error mitigation [arXiv, 2025]. **Impact Analysis:** Successful deployment of such algorithms at scale would undermine the security of widely used public-key cryptosystems (e.g., RSA, SSL/TLS), impacting global digital infrastructure, financial systems, secure communications, and national security. Even partial advances could enable targeted decryption of archived encrypted data, posing retroactive risks to data confidentiality. The reduction in quantum resource requirements lowers the barrier to entry, potentially expanding the set of actors capable of mounting quantum cryptanalysis. **Recommended Actions:** 1. Accelerate migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, particularly NIST-selected algorithms like CRYSTALS-Kyber. 2. Inventory and classify data with long-term sensitivity for quantum risk exposure. 3. Invest in quantum-resistant hybrid cryptographic protocols as transitional safeguards. 4. Monitor algorithmic developments in adiabatic and variational quantum computing for early warning signals. 5. Strengthen quantum key distribution (QKD) research and deployment in high-assurance environments. **Confidence Matrix:** - **Threat Identification:** High confidence — grounded in peer-reviewed simulation results and clear technical methodology. - **Probability Assessment:** Medium confidence — extrapolation beyond 8 qubits involves uncertainty in scalability and error resilience. - **Impact Analysis:** High confidence — well-established consequences of broken public-key cryptography. - **Recommended Actions:** High confidence — aligned with existing quantum transition roadmaps from NIST and NSA. *Source: [arXiv:2512.01234 [quant-ph]] Enhanced Digitized Adiabatic Quantum Factorization Algorithm Using Null-Space Encoding, 2025.* —Ada H. Pemberley Dispatch from The Prepared E0