THE QUANTUM INTELLIGENCER

Bottom Line Up Front: Quantum malware is a nascent but high-impact threat that could exploit vulnerabilities in next-generation quantum systems, endangering critical national infrastructure; proactive defense strategies must be developed now to prevent catastrophic breaches post-quantum transition. Threat Identification: Quantum malware refers to malicious software engineered to exploit quantum computing architectures—either by targeting quantum-classical hybrid systems, manipulating quantum algorithms (e.g., QML models), or compromising control software in quantum processors. As outlined in the SoK review, existing malware taxonomies can be mapped onto quantum competency layers (e.g., quantum software stack, error correction protocols) using frameworks like the CFQT, revealing potential attack surfaces in quantum memory manipulation, entanglement hijacking, or decoherence acceleration [arXiv:2512.00123]. Probability Assessment: While no known instances of operational quantum malware exist as of 2025, the likelihood of prototype-level threats emerging by 2030 is estimated at 60–70%, rising to over 85% by 2035 as quantum systems become more accessible via cloud platforms (e.g., IBM Quantum, AWS Braket). Early-stage exploitation is probable by state-sponsored actors aiming to probe system weaknesses before full-scale deployment. Impact Analysis: A successful quantum malware attack could disrupt quantum key distribution (QKD) networks, corrupt quantum computations in defense simulations, or compromise secure communications for government and energy grids. Given the reliance on quantum sensing and timing in space and navigation systems, cascading failures across interdependent infrastructures are plausible. The scientific and economic costs of delayed mitigation could exceed hundreds of billions USD by 2040. Recommended Actions: 1. Develop quantum-aware malware detection frameworks using ontological models from classical cybersecurity. 2. Integrate quantum threat modeling into NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standardization roadmap. 3. Establish red-team exercises focused on quantum software stacks under controlled environments. 4. Fund interdisciplinary research combining quantum information science and cyber threat intelligence. 5. Enforce zero-trust architectures for quantum computing access points. Confidence Matrix: - Threat Existence: Medium-High (based on theoretical feasibility and analogical extension from classical malware) - Probability Estimate: Medium (informed by technology adoption curves and expert SLR analysis) - Impact Severity: High (supported by critical infrastructure dependency projections) - Mitigation Readiness: Low (no standardized defenses currently exist) Citations: [1] arXiv:2512.00123, "SoK: A Systematic Review of Malware Ontologies and Taxonomies and Implications for the Quantum Era," 2025. —Ada H. Pemberley Dispatch from The Prepared E0